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Using hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling, 3-km-resolution end-of-twenty-first-century runoff timing changes over California's Sierra Nevada for all available global climate models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Int...
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Using hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling, 3-km-resolution end-of-twenty-first-century runoff timing changes over California's Sierra Nevada for all available global climate models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are projected. All four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report are examined. These multimodel, multiscenario projections allow for quantification of ensemble-mean runoff timing changes and an associated range of possible outcomes due to both intermodel variability and choice of forcing scenario. Under a "business as usual'' forcing scenario (RCP8.5), warming leads to a shift toward much earlier snowmelt-driven surface runoff in 2091-2100 compared to 1991-2000, with advances of as much as 80 days projected in the 35-model ensemble mean. For a realistic "mitigation'' scenario (RCP4.5), the ensemble-mean change is smaller but still large (up to 30 days). For all plausible forcing scenarios and all GCMs, the simulated changes are statistically significant, so that a detectable change in runoff timing is inevitable. Even for the mitigation scenario, the ensemble-mean change is approximately equivalent to one standard deviation of the natural variability at most elevations. Thus, even when greenhouse gas emissions are curtailed, the runoff change is climatically significant. For the business-as-usual scenario, the ensemble-mean change is approximately two standard deviations of the natural variability at most elevations, portending a truly dramatic change in surface hydrology by the century's end if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated.
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An idealized framework of steady barotropic flow past an isolated seamount in a background of constant stratification (with frequency N) and rotation (with Coriolis parameter f) is used to examine the formation, separation, instab...
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An idealized framework of steady barotropic flow past an isolated seamount in a background of constant stratification (with frequency N) and rotation (with Coriolis parameter f) is used to examine the formation, separation, instability of the turbulent bottom boundary layers (BBLs), and ultimately, the genesis of submesoscale coherent vortices (SCVs) in the ocean interior. The BBLs generate vertical vorticity zeta and potential vorticity q on slopes; the flow separates and spawns shear layers; barotropic and centrifugal shear instabilities form submesoscale vortical filaments and induce a high rate of local energy dissipation; the filaments organize into vortices that then horizontally merge and vertically align to form SCVs. These SCVs have O(1) Rossby numbers () and horizontal and vertical scales that are much larger than those of the separated shear layers and associated vortical filaments. Although the upstream flow is barotropic, downstream baroclinicity manifests in the wake, depending on the value of the nondimensional height , which is the ratio of the seamount height to that of the Taylor height , where L is the seamount half-width. When , SCVs span the vertical extent of the seamount itself. However, for , there is greater range of variation in the sizes of the SCVs in the wake, reflecting the wake baroclinicity caused by the topographic interaction. The aspect ratio of the wake SCVs has the scaling , instead of the quasigeostrophic scaling L-z/L-h similar to f/N.
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In this study (Part I), the mid-twenty-first-century surface air temperature increase in the entire CMIP5 ensemble is downscaled to very high resolution (2 km) over the Los Angeles region, using a new hybrid dynamical-statistical ...
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In this study (Part I), the mid-twenty-first-century surface air temperature increase in the entire CMIP5 ensemble is downscaled to very high resolution (2 km) over the Los Angeles region, using a new hybrid dynamical-statistical technique. This technique combines the ability of dynamical downscaling to capture finescale dynamics with the computational savings of a statistical model to downscale multiple GCMs. First, dynamical downscaling is applied to five GCMs. Guided by an understanding of the underlying local dynamics, a simple statistical model is built relating the GCM input and the dynamically downscaled output. This statistical model is used to approximate the warming patterns of the remaining GCMs, as if they had been dynamically downscaled. The full 32-member ensemble allows for robust estimates of the most likely warming and uncertainty resulting from intermodel differences. The warming averaged over the region has an ensemble mean of 2.3 degrees C, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 1.0 degrees to 3.6 degrees C. Inland and high elevation areas warm more than coastal areas year round, and by as much as 60% in the summer months. A comparison to other common statistical downscaling techniques shows that the hybrid method produces similar regional-mean warming outcomes but demonstrates considerable improvement in capturing the spatial details. Additionally, this hybrid technique incorporates an understanding of the physical mechanisms shaping the region's warming patterns, enhancing the credibility of the final results.
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Idealized simulations of a shoaling internal tide on a gently sloping, linear shelf provide a tool to investigate systematically the effects of stratification strength, vertical structure, and internal wave amplitude on internal t...
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Idealized simulations of a shoaling internal tide on a gently sloping, linear shelf provide a tool to investigate systematically the effects of stratification strength, vertical structure, and internal wave amplitude on internal tidal bores. Simulations that prescribe a range of uniform or variable stratifications and wave amplitudes demonstrate a variety of internal tidal bores characterized by shoreward-propagating horizontal density fronts with associated overturning circulations. Qualitatively, we observe three classes of solution: 1) bores, 2) bores with trailing wave trains, and 3) no bores. Very strong stratification (small wave) or very weak stratification (large wave) inhibits bore formation. Bores exist in an intermediate zone of stratification strength and wave amplitude. Within this intermediate zone, wave trains can trail bores if the stratification is relatively weak or wave amplitude large. We observe three types of bore that arise dependent on the vertical structure of stratification and wave amplitude: 1) a "backward'' downwelling front (near uniform stratification, small to intermediate waves), 2) a "forward'' upwelling front (strong pycnocline, small to large waves), and 3) a "double'' bore with leading up and trailing downwelling front (intermediate pycnocline, intermediate to large waves). Visualization of local flow structures explores the evolution of each of these bore types. A frontogenetic diagnostic framework elucidates the previously undiscussed yet universal role of vertical straining of a stratified fluid that initiates formation of bores. Bores with wave trains exhibit strong nonhydrostatic dynamics. The results of this study suggest that mid-to-outer shelf measurements of stratification and cross-shore flow can serve as proxies to indicate the class of bore farther inshore.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The sloshing back and forth of the tide can give rise to "internal'' waves that ride along density layers in the coastal ocean. As these waves shoal, their shape may steepen and tilt the density layers perpendicular to the seafloor. The shoreward propagation of these vertically tilted density layers, known as an internal "bore,'' is common to many coastal regions. Bores come in various shapes and sizes, yet universally they have strong currents that influence the transport of nearshore material. Utilizing computer simulations, this study investigates how the vertical differences in density layers influence internal bores. The results provide a context for observations of the coastal ocean by translating measurements of outer-shelf conditions to an expected bore type further inshore.
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We have developed two statistical models for extended seasonal predictions of the upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) natural streamflow during April-July: a stepwise linear regression (reduced to a simple regression with one predic...
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We have developed two statistical models for extended seasonal predictions of the upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) natural streamflow during April-July: a stepwise linear regression (reduced to a simple regression with one predictor) and a neural network model. Monthly, basin-averaged soil moisture, snow water equivalent (SWE), precipitation, and the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are selected as potential predictors. Pacific SST predictors (PSPs) are derived from a dipole pattern over the Pacific (30 degrees S-65 degrees N) that is correlated with the lagging streamflow. For both models, the correlation between the hindcasted and observed streamflow exceeds 0.60 for lead times less than 4 months using soil moisture, SWE, and precipitation as predictors. This correlation is higher than that of an autoregression model (correlation similar to 0.50). Since these land surface and atmospheric variables have no statistically significant correlations with the streamflow, PSPs are then incorporated into the models. The two models have a correlation of similar to 0.50 using PSPs alone for lead times from 6 to 9 months, and such skills are probably associated with stronger correlation between SST and streamflow in recent decades. The similar prediction skills between the two models suggest a largely linear system between SST and streamflow. Four predictors together can further improve short-lead prediction skills (correlation similar to 0.80). Therefore, our results confirm the advantage of the Pacific SST information in predicting the UCRB streamflow with a long lead time and can provide useful climate information for water supply planning and decisions.
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The preconditioning of the atmosphere for a shallow-to-deep convective transition during the dry-to-wet season transition period (August-November) is investigated using Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement ...
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The preconditioning of the atmosphere for a shallow-to-deep convective transition during the dry-to-wet season transition period (August-November) is investigated using Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) GoAmazon2014/5 campaign data from March 2014 to November 2015 in Manacapuru, Brazil. In comparison to conditions observed prior to shallow convection, anomalously high humidity in the free troposphere and boundary layer is observed prior to a shallow-to-deep convection transition. An entraining plume model, which captures this leading dependence on lower tropospheric moisture, is employed to study indirect thermodynamic effects associated with vertical wind shear (VWS) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration on preconvective conditions. The shallow-to-deep convective transition primarily depends on humidity, especially that from the free troposphere, which tends to increase plume buoyancy. Conditions preceding deep convection are associated with high relative humidity, and low-to-moderate CCN concentration (less than the 67th percentile, 1274 cm 3). VWS, however, shows little relation to moisture and plume buoyancy. Buoyancy estimates suggest that the latent heat release due to freezing is important to deep convective growth under all conditions analyzed, consistent with potential pathways for aerosol effects, even in the presence of a strong entrainment. Shallow-only convective growth, however, shows an association with a strong (weak) low (deep) level VWS and with higher CCN concentration.
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Wind-blown sand is the main driver of dune development and dust emission from soils and is thus of fundamental importance for geomorphology, ecology, climate, and air quality. Even though sand transport is driven by nonstationary ...
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Wind-blown sand is the main driver of dune development and dust emission from soils and is thus of fundamental importance for geomorphology, ecology, climate, and air quality. Even though sand transport is driven by nonstationary turbulent winds, and is thus inherently intermittent, current parameterizations in atmospheric models assume stationary wind and continuous transport. We draw on extensive field measurements to show that neglecting saltation intermittency causes biases in the timing and intensity of predicted fluxes. We present a simple parameterization that accounts for saltation intermittency and produces substantially improved agreement against measurements. We investigate the implications of accounting for transport intermittency in atmospheric models by analyzing 35 years of hourly wind speed data from climate simulations. We show that accounting for intermittency leads to significantly different predictions of sand mass fluxes throughout the year, with potential implications for timing and intensity of dust emission.
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Whistler mode chorus emissions with a characteristic frequency chirp are important magnetospheric waves, responsible for the acceleration of outer radiation belt electrons to relativistic energies and also for the scattering loss ...
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Whistler mode chorus emissions with a characteristic frequency chirp are important magnetospheric waves, responsible for the acceleration of outer radiation belt electrons to relativistic energies and also for the scattering loss of these electrons into the atmosphere. Here, we report on the first laboratory experiment where whistler waves exhibiting fast frequency chirping have been artificially produced using a beam of energetic electrons launched into a cold plasma. Frequency chirps are only observed for a narrow range of plasma and beam parameters, and show a strong dependence on beam density, plasma density, and magnetic field gradient. Broadband whistler waves similar to magnetospheric hiss are also observed, and the parameter ranges for each emission are quantified.
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In this study, we focus on Langmuir turbulence in the deep ocean with the presence of a large macroalgal farm using a large eddy simulation method. The wave-current interactions are modelled by solving the wave-averaged equations....
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In this study, we focus on Langmuir turbulence in the deep ocean with the presence of a large macroalgal farm using a large eddy simulation method. The wave-current interactions are modelled by solving the wave-averaged equations. The hydrodynamic process over the farm is found to drive a persistent flow pattern similar to Langmuir circulations but is locked in space across the farm. These secondary circulations are generated because the cross-stream shear produced by the rows of canopy elements leads to a steady vertical vorticity field, which is then rotated to the downstream direction under the effect of vortex force. Since the driving mechanism is similar to the Craik-Leibovich type 2 instability theory, these secondary circulations are also termed as attached Langmuir circulations. We then apply a triple decomposition on the flow field to unveil the underlying kinematics and energy transfer between the mean flow, the secondary flow resulting from the farm drag and the transient eddies. Flow visualizations and statistics suggest that the attached Langmuir circulations result from the adjustment of the upper ocean mixed layer to the macroalgal farm, and they will weaken (if not disappear) when the flow reaches an equilibrium state within the farm. The triple-decomposed energy budgets reveal that the energy of the secondary flow is transferred from the mean flow under the action of canopy drag, while the transient eddies feed on wave energy transferred by the Stokes drift and energy conversion from the secondary flow.
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Observations and models of deep ocean boundary currents show that they exhibit complex variability, instabilities and eddy shedding, particularly over continental slopes that curve horizontally, for example around coastal peninsul...
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Observations and models of deep ocean boundary currents show that they exhibit complex variability, instabilities and eddy shedding, particularly over continental slopes that curve horizontally, for example around coastal peninsulas. In this article the authors investigate the source of this variability by characterizing the properties of baroclinic instability in mean flows over horizontally curved bottom slopes. The classical two-layer quasi-geostrophic solution for linear baroclinic instability over sloping bottom topography is extended to the case of azimuthal mean flow in an annular channel. To facilitate comparison with the classical straight channel instability problem of uniform mean flow, the authors focus on comparatively simple flows in an annulus, namely uniform azimuthal velocity and solid-body rotation. Baroclinic instability in solid-body rotation flow is analytically analogous to the instability in uniform straight channel flow due to several identical properties of the mean flow, including vanishing strain rate and vorticity gradient. The instability of uniform azimuthal flow is numerically similar to straight channel flow instability as long as the mean barotropic azimuthal velocity is zero. Non-zero barotropic flow generally suppresses the instability via horizontal curvature-induced strain and Reynolds stress work. An exception occurs when the ratio of the bathymetric to isopycnal slopes is close to (positive) one, as is often observed in the ocean, in which case the instability is enhanced. A non-vanishing mean barotropic flow component also results in a larger number of growing eigenmodes and in increased non-normal growth. The implications of these findings for variability in deep western boundary currents are discussed.
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